Sunday, November 19, 2017

Which Brings Us To Turkey Week

This society is a Japanified Old Age home, eagerly trading Central Bank-sponsored fentanyl-laced sugar highs, in exchange for a solvent future. Because with enough "luck", this will all implode on the next generation. Meanwhile, we can continue poaching elephants and otherwise doing everything possible to return to the 1950s and the lost splendour of Rhodesia. The good old days, when tax cuts for the money-printed elite trickled down onto the fortunate heads of the indolent masses. And when the President could ruin a marriage with silent acceptance from everyone, not just evangelical pseudo-Christians. What is this world coming to?

"I did try and fuck her. She was married. And I moved on her very heavily. In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said, "I'll show you where they have some nice furniture." I took her out furniture—I moved on her like a bitch"

And when the U.S. could count on other failed states to abdicate responsibility towards the planet:

For the past year since the election, global capital has been chasing the strongest currency, from the U.S., to Europe, and finally to Emerging Markets. Now it's time to go back to Japan...

"If you don't know who the turkey is when you're taking the advice of Wall Street, then it's you"

“Late-cycle optimism” is the chief theme underpinning the bank’s seven top trade theses

[You can stop me any time]

"Here are the Goldman team’s seven highest-conviction calls for 2018:"

"The strategists recommend positioning for four 2018 Fed hikes and a rising term premium by shorting 10-year U.S. debt"

2011 Redux
This was the 2011 Fed rolloff experience gone bad:

"A rising term premium is at odds with what generally happens during Federal Reserve tightening regimes, but Goldman says things are different this time"

2014 Redux
"Goldman, recommends a long position in the MSCI Emerging Market Index"

And...2015 Redux

In other words, make a bet on the Hong Kong IPO market continuing to go vertical forever...

2015 Redux
"European Reflation"

Compounding the 2015-style risk will be a bet on imaginary European reflation:

2008 Redux: "Global reflation"

EM Credit
EM Debt
Commodity Currencies

Bonus trades:

2016 Redux

2007 Redux
Late Cycle Optimism

Y2K Redux
Big Cap Tech

2017 Late Cycle Melt-Up Redux
aka. Another Japanese election