Thursday, November 30, 2017

"Buy The Abdication Of Responsibility"

My cousin used to order six shots at last call. It was never a good idea...

The casino is going vertical ahead of the Senate vote. Stock gamblers have entered the glue sniffing phase...

What this tax cut represents more than anything is inter-generational abdication of responsibility. Wall Street analysts are tripping over each other to see who can issue the most bullish forecast for what happens if/when the tax cut is passed. 

"Let us therefore bow our heads and pray for the plundering of our grandchildren"

First, they must ignore the fact that this is the second longest expansion in U.S. history. And, the longest streak of monthly stock market gains in 22 years. Amid DotCom era P/E multiples, despite corporate profits as % of GDP the highest since 1929 i.e. the greatest income inequality since that same peak. All good. With the flip of just one wafer thin mint - after tax profits - everything will be A-OK. Because we all know that tax cuts are free money. These analysts also ignore the fact that the Fed is tightening both ends of the yield curve to slow the economy and will work double time once fiscal stimulus is enacted. 

Nevertheless, the Kool-Aid has been imbibed. The crack has been smoked. The glue has been sniffed.

As some have already opined recently, is Bitcoin really the biggest bubble or is it the Dow Casino - inflated by the unfounded hopium of Generation Madoff?

Good question.

My hypothesis is that they're all part of the same social mood bubble, and hence they will all implode at around the same time. That said, two bubbles don't make a right, so the logic of defending Bitcoin on the basis that it's the least impactful of bubbles, is questionable at best. 

Bitcoin had a counter-trend a-b-c rally overnight, on the hourly. Which means that this is the third wave down. The 50 day moving average is just a speed bump. A correction of the four year rally could easily take this back to $1,000 or $0 when the miners abandon it en masse.

Once again, Transports are leading (asset) "reflation"

This end of cycle delusion is no more real than Bitcoin:

"His S&P 2018 price target reflects strong fundamentals and a synchronized growing global economy"

We all know how wealth inequality was "fixed" in 1929...