Friday, July 28, 2017

Throwing Matches At Dynamite: RISK IS BINARY

Having systematically obliterated the rest of retail, last night the last retailer standing, imploded, because "consumer spending is boosting GDP". There's never been a society as dumb as this one...

Trumptopia is on borrowed time and money. The biggest "Black Swan" risk the world faces right now is Camacho-in-Chief drinking tequila on the linoleum while broadcasting semi-lucid bullshit on Twitter.

It appears that in between 146 character-limited tweets about transgender, Trump went to the washroom and made himself a sandwich, leaving the entire world wondering what the fuck he was talking about...

"Trump started a tweetstorm that sent the Pentagon into a panic yesterday. The US military spent nine full minutes wondering if the president was about to start a war with North Korea."

Today of course was GDP day. Speaking of mega lies, there wasn't ONE year in the past eight when the U.S. Federal deficit did not exceed that year's GDP growth. It's all been 100% smoke and mirrors and plundering of grandchildren.

Here is what stoned zombies are told to believe about second quarter GDP:

Here is the reality: This is not consumer spending, it's 100% borrowed Federal money:

Via Congressional Budget Office

Here is what the jobless consumer is doing vis-a-vis bars and restaurants:

All of the borrowed money of course is getting siphoned OUT of wages INTO corporate profits. And yet of course even the profits in this cycle are a colossal lie. Copious dumbfucks deride Millenials as "snowflakes", yet this entire society of 400 pound fat men is one big snowflake...

Trophies for everyones:

"so far, so many companies are beating their estimates and beating expectations"

The reality is that earnings are still below where they were two years ago

"We're beating our own lowered expectations"

Meanwhile, it's far worse at the top line, as absolute revenues are only 4% higher than 2007, and are 100% correlated to crude oil:

Through first quarter:

Here is what that looks like inflation adjusted:

For Free Trade dullards this is what happens when you lay people off to make the quarter, over and over again:

"How many people did these guys get rid of?"


Which means that this entire fantasy is now dependent upon OPEC

Recall last Friday July 21st (circled below):

One week later:

"We believe the latest price rise is on a fragile footing,"

What would make you say that?

Energy stocks gapped up to a new high today and are now rolling over. Why? Because the world's largest Energy stock and the only one that matters is final imploding:

But we've only seen this movie once before, so how would we know?

Also, this week, Transports imploded due to GDP acceleration:

Here we see Transports and Canadian stocks tracking 1:1

Which gets us to the biggest lie of all which just imploded spectacularly - the lie of the jobless consumer:

EPS: 40 cents per share vs. $1.42 per share expected, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters

"As investors, everyone knows that Amazon really doesn't care about the bottom line"

In other words, the one company that is imploding the rest of retail and the economy, doesn't need to make money. Because the Fed can print money and we can trade casino shares back and forth while pretending to be wealthy.  

Speaking of retail and GDP, here is the change in private inventories:

"GDP is accelerating"

The sum of all lies:

Last but not least, the dollar got shellacked this week as the sum of all lies came home to roost