Monday, June 19, 2017

The News Breaks With The Market

One of the central tenets of Elliot Wave Social Mood theory is that markets move and then commentators ascribe proximate reasons for why prices moved. In other words, they reverse engineer the reason after-the-fact, which is what is happening right now...

I call it the "Blame Amazon" denialistic diversion. To be sure, Amazon has monkey hammered the rest of retail, but that company has been around since 1994, and one company can't explain deflation, commodities, auto loans, commercial loans, payrolls, retail, and housing starts all imploding at the exact same time.

"The Amazon-Whole Foods deal could push down grocery prices and hamper the Fed's hopes for higher inflation."

Maybe it's not Amazon after all. Maybe what is holding down food inflation is the collapse in agricultural commodities to multi-decade lows:

Here is the other inflationary factor that has nothing to do with the "Amazon" effect:

The global ‘credit impulse’ has fallen as dramatically over recent months as it did during the onset of the Lehman crisis, signalling serious headwinds for the world economy and asset prices just as the US Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports in London’s Daily Telegraph.

Next, we have to explain why consumer staples stocks are rolling over, and once again, Amazon is the key excuse offered:

"As consumers also look for fresher foods and more organic and natural offerings, shelf space in the supermarket center aisles, long dominated by big brands like Kellogg, Kraft Heinz and Campbell Soup — is also simply shrinking."

Howard covers companies, like General Mills, Kraft Heinz, McCormick, Dean Foods, Mondelez, Hershey's and Kellogg, and she turned more negative on the sector in March.

Bad news for another set of stocks that can't be owned

Or is it just the rotation back to bonds again?



As long as Amazon doesn't implode, this will all be fine...

Another failure at $1,000 today:

The news breaks with the market visualized:

"As consumers also look for fresher foods and more organic and natural offerings..."

Sure, I'll believe that. Again.

Whole Foods: