Friday, May 5, 2017

The Macronian Candidate. Is Priced In.

Imploding commodities, not so much...

One thing the ill-fated Brexit and Trump polls apparently forgot to ask, was the minor detail - "do you plan to vote?". Because any chimp can say they like a candidate, but when apathy is the majority voter, passive opinions are totally meaningless...

We know one thing for certain, Wall Street has already voted for their inside man...

"The first round vote of the French presidential election on Sunday, which put centrist Emmanuel Macron on course for a convincing victory in the second round on May 7, has cemented the positive view of many banks and brokers on the euro zone."

Huit, a la banque
"$100 billion on Macron, let it ride..."

France CAC ETF:

To the extent that the VIX is currently pinned to a 10 year low, one could argue that Macron is "priced in":

Of course VIX 10 marked the end of the global rally in 2014, but crude is already imploding, so how would we know?