Thursday, April 27, 2017

The First Blundered Days

National Post/Toronto:
"The extraordinary thing about Donald Trump’s presidency is this: as low as expectations of him were going in — as ignorant, unstable, and corrupt as he seemed likely to be, in advance — he has still managed to come in under them. It is impossible, indeed, to imagine how his first 100 days could have been worse, short of — well, I was going to say short of starting a war, but stay tuned."


But enough about Trump's least favourite sector, what about Trump's most favoured economic sectors?

First, a lesson in Econ 101 for Trump's economic advisors:

"Crowding out can refer to when government borrowing absorbs all the available lending capacity in the economy. This causes interest rates to rise."

Loan growth rate (red) with short-term Treasury yields (black):

Lesson #2: Bullshit that precedes concrete actions by months or years or never, can be deleterious to GDP in the meantime...

"The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.2 percent on April 27, down from 0.5 percent on April 18"

Fracking stocks

U.S. Oil (ETF)

U.S. Steel




As long as these stocks don't all get sold post-earnings, this will all be fine, otherwise, there is a lot more than $2 trillion on the line...