Monday, April 3, 2017

Forrest Trump-o-Nomics: Failure To Launch

It will come as total surprise that Trump's bullshit has a limited shelf-life. They assumed it would live forever...

"We will cut taxes massively"


Two rate hikes and a bond rout later, the tax cut has already been paid for by borrowers via higher interest rates and bond investors via massive losses. In other words, instead of delivering reflation, Trump has done the opposite, he has delivered deflation.

Here is Commercial and Industrial loan growth with short-term rates:

In other words, they still haven't figured out yet, that higher interest rates are not "reflationary"...

And they don't help the auto industry:

Nor retail

Nor commodities

Balls in a "fake reflationary" vise visualized:
Bond shorts (red) with 10 year yield:

When asked specifically by the Financial Times if he plans to "cut a deal on tax reform this year" – not even by the August recess – Trump played coy, saying he doesn't "want to talk about when, and I don't want to talk about timing."

"We will have a massive and very strong tax reform. But I am not going to talk about when,"

This is the Treasury bond ETF (TLT) with short interest:

"We have no timeline"

The fact that you have no timeline means that you just crashed your own reflation trade. Fucking dunce...