Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Lie Of The Hurricane

EconoDunces have a stellar unbroken streak of never seeing the end of the cycle ahead of time. Why start now?

Risk markets took their first leg down at disparate intervals. Now they are sinkronizing to fall as all one market...

Today's Ponzi-based Free Trade alchemy which I call Hegemonics, is human history's largest estate sale. After 2008, the only way the consumption oriented lifestyle could be "saved" was by leveraging it 10x. As of right now EconoDunces are mistaking gamblers throwing their money away at the casino for a "recovery". They are weighing "soft" sentiment data over hard data. In other words, there's so much horse shit in here, there has to be a pony somewhere...

“Confidence is good"

“Despite the strong gain in confidence among small businesses there has been a slowing in loans over the past several months. The story of post-election small business optimism leading to greater investment is not (yet) playing out in the data.”

Hard Data:

Slowdown in GDP
Widening of the budget deficit 
Renewed collapse in Oil, Gasoline, Commodities, Precious Metals
Curve flattening
Collapse in retail stocks
Collapse in Transport stocks
Declining loan growth

Soft Data:

Stock prices, Consumer sentiment

The bond market isn't buying it:
Here we see that despite three rate hikes in the past 14 months, long-term rates are where they were over a year ago...

30 year yield (black). One year yield (red):

Amazon new all time high today

Now that Sears is officially "a going concern", here is Amazon with Walmart