Sunday, March 26, 2017

Degeneration Madoff Conned Again. By Themselves...

The human population has never been higher, which from a Social Mood perspective just means that there has never been as many consensus-seeking dunces as there are right now...

Since 2008 the stock market has rallied in anticipation of imminent economic reflation, in the meantime paying dividends from the dissolution of the economy:

Industrial Production 24 month rate of change:

FOMOP: Fear of Missing Out On Ponzi...

Like clockwork, stocks peak and out come the terrorist attacks and mass shootings, confirming yet another manic blow-off top in Social Mood. Those who don't believe in Social Mood are the reason it works. They are oblivious to the fact that we are an inherently emotional social animal, highly subject to the vicissitudes of the day. We are not anchored in reality, we are floating in a sea of confirmation bias. The rise of Social Media has compounded the problem 10x, as everyone subscribes to their own stream of denialism-confirming bullshit.

The more things change the more they stay the same. The world is not changing, only the way we do the same old things is changing. Human beings evolve at an imperceptible pace. We are the same animals we were a thousand years ago. That part of our brain that controls emotion is imprinted in our DNA. We cannot transcend instinct, nor do we even try. Most people are oblivious to the fact that their latent ambitions are merely responding to primitive instincts to acquire, compete, and consume. 

This cycle is much different than any other cycle however, because, in Elliott Wave parlance this is a 'b' wave meaning it is predicated upon blatantly obvious non-existent fundamentals. It's a phony bubble in social mood propagated solely via story telling and confirmation bias. A circle jerk of unprecedented magnitude. The stock market is responding to the muscle memory of where the economy used to exist, prior to outsourcing. Stock market P/E multiples rise with each tick in the S&P, while corporate Mad Men and EconoDunces, yet unaffected by their own carnage, extol the apparent virtues of our new CappuccinoConomy. The memes of the day that we "borrowed our way out of a debt crisis", and "printing money is the secret to effortless wealth".

Having imploded the manufacturing sector, this society now conflates an HTML web site allowing shoppers to buy direct-from-China merchandise while decimating the entire retail sector, as a sign of economic "progress". 1960s internet technology overlaid with icons. Meanwhile, excess capital thrown off by a dearth of demand is put to work automating the remaining jobs. A circular investment in certain bankruptcy.  

History will not be kind. The biggest duncefest in human history without any comparison. 

Consumer sentiment with 'Conomy and Stocks:

S&P Earnings Yield with Global GDP growth