Two dunces for the price of $everything...
HEGEMONICS:
There are two types of economics - those that apply to reserve-currency hegemons, and those that apply to everyone else. For the lucky hegemon, the cost of the intervening alchemy and malfeasance accumulates, and the bill is served at the end. Which brings us to "now"...
U.S. Economic Growth slowed in 2016 to 1.6%
U.S. Deficit in 2016 was 3% of GDP
In other words, were it not for Ponzi borrowing, the U.S. would already be in recession. In addition, "excitement" over the election has papered over the other data that is pointing to a very hard landing.
The hardest landing ever...
First off, the fact that all retailers ex-Amazon are imploding at the exact same time, should have been a canary in the coal mine. These are not all "bricks and mortar" retailers either. Land's End garners most of its sales via catalog and online:
Stock prices can be manipulated all day via buybacks, mass layoffs and other gimmicks to create fake wealth. However, commodities don't lie...
Oil and gas inventories both reached new record highs this week. And gasoline demand fell 5% year over year which is "unheard of" outside of recession.
Next, food commodities are imploding similar to 2008.
Coffee:
Sugar:
On to lumber:
Switching gears to GAAP corporate profits. We are told that profits will come back any day now. What if they don't?
What if current forward P/E ratios are just a Wall Street fabrication, as they are at the end of every other cycle in U.S. history...
Treasury tax receipts 24 month rate of change:
In other words, what if we're just being lied to all over again?
Then the bond market would be right. Again...
And loading up on coal stocks was a bad idea. Again...
Gamblers will realize they got conned. Again...
But this time all of the orange Twinkies won't put humpty dumpty together again...
And then EVERYONE will learn that Twinkies are bad for you...
