Friday, February 24, 2017

Empire Of The Conned: THE BIG LONG

This week the Dow exceeded the prior number of record closes set in 1987,  ahead of the crash, and the pending Reagan tax cut...

The problem with a rally based upon conning people, is that eventually you run out of people left to con.

At the worst possible time...

Earnings yield with global GDP:

Trump can tell a lie with ten times more conviction than anyone else can tell the truth. A mere five weeks into his Presidency and he's aging like a 70 year-old Twinkie.

Orange on the outside, hollow on the inside:

In the same week that he bragged about approving the Keystone Pipeline deal, Exxon wrote off $16 billion of their tar sands reserves, for a start. Also in this same week that he touted shale oil, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories reached new record highs, and U.S. oil exports filled the gap created by the OPEC agreement two years in the making:
The U.S. exported a record amount of crude oil, topping a million barrels a day for a second week and filling the gap in world markets created by OPEC cutbacks...Oil has been holding above $50 per barrel since OPEC reached the output deal in December. "It looks like compliance is going to be well below 80 percent. Exports are on the upswing. We're seeing the tanker data"

This was the week that the Trump reflation charade came unglued full force...

U.S. Deficit (red), One Year Treasury (green) and Northern Trust Asset Management, are all pointing in the same direction. Just like the last two times...

Risk is coming off, as rotation from micro cap to Dow stocks shows:

The Dow and S&P reached new all time highs this week, but the five year was unimpressed:

Gamblers should have learned last time what comes next...

30 year Treasury (black) with banks stocks (red):


Another retailer - Victoria's Secret parent company imploded...

Frackers and other junk stocks imploded

Natural gas

Oil with volatility

Large U.S. banks rolled over

Large Canadian banks rolled over

Cisco made a new moonshot high

The USDJPY imploded:

And the S&P had its first overnight 10 point gap down today since the election. Bought with both hands of course...

with Nikkei aka. "overnight risk"