Tuesday, February 28, 2017

The Big Shitting of Bricks. The Sequel.

What am I going to do when this is over? Make a movie, what else?

By all rights the flagging "reflation" rally should be over tonight with Trump's speech to Congress. Every tool that can be conned is already in the market, while insiders and institutions are selling with both hands...

Base case scenario, the rally is done, and the next piece(s) of macro data will also confirm that the economic cycle is over. At which point, panic will ensue into a no bid market.

This is the S&P / VIX ratio showing that the cost of hedging is rising exponentially. Anyone who wants to hedge is already fucked company, however unfortunately they haven't figured it out yet...

The 10 year yield backtested the breakdown line:

The junk stock rally is way over...

Institutions are selling...
Price / volume:

And so are insiders:

Which gets us to the long-term view...

The junk stock rally is game over man. Sorry to hear about Bill Paxton...

Flight to safety Risk
Micro cap / Dow ratio with VIX:

Overnight risk
The Nikkei is under its 50 dma again...

Long-term distribution
S&P / total market volume:

Retail is done.

Ag commodities are going full 2008


I see Oscars and Golden Globes in my future. 

"A sequel tragicomedy about a society of morally decayed fucktards with the attention span of a coked up flea, conned by the exact same morally void psychopaths as last time"