As with all megalomaniacs, Forrest Trump's achilles heel is his all-knowing ignorance. The carefully studied approach of knowing everything by knowing nothing, while speaking louder than everyone else in the room. And that buffoonish over-confidence has gulled political friend and foe alike into applying maximum leverage to his fake reflation rally:
Russell 2k/small banks net spec longs at October 2008 levels
Record 10 year Treasury bond shorts
All time low Rydex cash balances
All time low Rydex bearish assets
Highest stock market ETF inflows on record
Record 5 week active manager risk exposure
And oil net spec longs near 2014 record levels
Trump's plan for helping the U.S. oil industry is diametrically opposed to OPEC's plan to reduce production - an agreement two years in the making. Because the real-estate-agent in chief doesn't know anything about the oil industry, supply and demand, economics or anything else for that matter. Therefore he staffed his entire cabinet with corrupt industry bukkake whores instead...
Yes, Donny can collapse the entire oil market:
Unfortunately, Trump can't accelerate coal industry implosion...
"But there is one promise that analysts should take more seriously: The Trump team’s stated desire to increase U.S. oil production by expanding access to federal lands. It would take a bit of help from Congress, but the data suggests that there are sizeable additional resources that could be tapped."
Here is the Canadian dollar (red) with Oil. The last time oil diverged from the C$ for this period of time was late 2008. And then they both collapsed vertically down...
And of course the last time that oil net speculative long positions were at these levels, oil collapsed vertically down for a second time. Since that collapse, oil has gone absolutely nowhere for two solid years, which is why hedge funds are so eager to go bungee jumping with a noose all over again...
Rydex bearish positioning:
