Tuesday, January 31, 2017

"Being A Dunce Is Different This Time"

Trump is a false messiah leading the sheeple gleefully into the abyss. The Trump rally was 100% Wall Street fabrication...

Exhibit A: record bets on the indefinite status quo amid growing global turmoil. What could go wrong?

VIX futures speculative net short position:

Make old men honest again...
One thing all of these dunces across the entire political spectrum share in common is that they don't see the status quo consumption oriented competitive lifestyle ending now. "More" is the standard assumption. Forty-eight years ago NASA slingshot a six million pound rocket a quarter million miles to the moon and back at 10 times the speed of a bullet. Today, circus clowns are fighting trade wars on Twitter, 140 characters or less. There is no such thing as exceptionalism anymore, if there ever was such a thing. All there are is old men like Pat Buchanan harking back to something that no longer exists. A way of life consumed by special dividends. The future belongs to those who have the humility to accept that "we" are all the same after all. Those who've built an imaginary bridge to the indefinite "more", with the assistance of trusted psychopaths, will learn the hard way. Instantaneously.

U.S. gamblers are buying risk, the rest of the world is selling it. Today was deja vu of yesterday - weak morning, followed by late day rally ending below the prior close.

Any questions?

Tomorrow, the Fed has its chance to FINAL implode the Trump trade by indicating they see nascent economic weakness. Anything but a hawkish tone will lead to further implosion of the fantasy reflation trade. 

The final detonation sequence:

Oil's backtest of the trend-line failed:


This is a close-up view of the VIX futures position. Gamblers are betting that extreme complacency becomes more extreme. Which means that the cost of hedging capital is now 100% binary. Now you can hedge. Now you can't. 

We see how it worked out the last two times at these levels. The VIX spiked immediately afterwards...

The volume oscillator is coiled:

The Goldman Dow


On balance volume

In other words, the entire Trump rally was 100% late stage blow-off manic fantasy

Fabricated by financial asset managers

Who else?

Crude oil speculative net long futures

New record high this week: