Friday, December 16, 2016

"Dow 20,000 Or Crash"

Whichever comes first...

We'll pick it up again with Fed policy by Police Squad:

Chinese bond futures were limit down this week due to the Fed. The PBOC has a choice now to either let interest rates continue to rise, or massively devalue the currency. Currently, both are taking place at the same time...


"Chinese policymakers must "either hike the interest rate (as) the U.S. does, or they give up the exchange rate," Yan said. "It is likely they will do a combination of the two."

Here is the Chinese 10 year yield with Chinese stocks:




"Dow 20,000 or crash"

The reason why the Dow couldn't get past 20k...because everybody is already ALL IN...

This level of reduced liquidity only led to two other crashes, so I'm sure it can't happen again...

Price / Volume




And...rates have peaked coincident or prior to the FOMC meeting, and the market peaks at the same time. But we've only seen this movie four other times, so how would we know?



Speaking of reversals, regional banks down -2.5% this week:



Likewise, global financials rolled over...



Emerging Market stocks were duly monkey hammered by Police Squad...




As were EM currency and Credit



Russell / Dow was weak (small caps/large caps)



And Wilshire Dow broke past the support line...



Internet stocks:



% of S&P above 200 dma;



And the Dow Transports breakout that led to the massive surge in futures buying last week, was a headfake, like last time...

Transports were down -2.5 % on the week:

aka. trapped capital: