Wednesday, November 23, 2016

"Nothing Matters Until It Collapses"

Stock gamblers operate in their own special world of fantasy denial. Straight faced "advisors" tout reasonable market multiples which extrapolate economic expansion into forever. Conveniently ignoring market cycles which have ended EVERY bull market in human history. "Yes, at current multiples the market looks reasonable at the all time high, eight years into the first non-normalized pseudo-recovery in U.S. history, due to record stock buybacks and the highest profit margins since 1929"...The other fantasy of the day is that Central Banks are "propping up" stock markets. China's Central Bank has done the most to intervene in stock markets, therefore they have the weakest market. Japan's Central Bank owns more than half of all ETFs, they have the second weakest stock market. The ECB buys EVERY credit instrument known to man, their stocks go nowhere. The U.S. Central Bank is in tightening mode - and U.S. stocks are at all time highs. Why? Because relative yield and return on investment is higher in the country with the tightest monetary policy, so the U.S. sucks in capital from around the world. 

Which looks like this in terms of the S&P / Dollar Ratio (red), with S&P 500 (black):
It's a proxy for how much capital is getting sucked out of the rest of the world...



Meaning that it's a very good fit when overlaid with the Rest of the World ex-U.S. (black):



And hence one must be a hardcore denialist to believe that the U.S. will "go it alone" while sucking capital out of the rest of the world, without any consequences...



When shit's already breaking far and wide...