Friday, November 4, 2016

All Signs Point To MegaPlosion

"An election that is tied or nearly tied in the popular vote is likely one in which Trump beats her to 270 electoral votes."

I see three scenarios surrounding the election, in order of likelihood (albeit totally subjective):

1: The market implodes between now and COB Tuesday due to a lack of buyers ahead of the election and/or last minute "revelations"

2: Clinton wins, futures rally, gap up and then implosion since everyone is on the same side of the boat

3: Trump wins and the market spontaneously combusts

I don't see a "Brexit rally" in the cards, since we already had one of those. Why Brexit got bought is not for me to say...

The S&P just bounced right at the 200 day moving average, aided and abetted by a weaker than expected payrolls number, what else?

Ended the week right where the market imploded the last two times aka. "bullish"

Rydex bearish assets:

"Certainly, the deeds of OPEC and Russia have not matched their words. Surveys of October's production by OPEC saw an overall output level of around 34 million barrels per day, up 170,000 barrels per day from September, and a long way from the agreed to target of 32.5 million barrels per day."

The Russian energy minister, in a moment of candor, even remarked that any accord that resulted in higher prices would only revive the U.S. shale oil industry. He should know that U.S. shale is already reviving, as demonstrated by the rising rig count and nascent rebound in U.S. lower 48 states production.

Given the reality of higher, not lower, production from seemingly every corner of the producing universe, the market is removing the Algiers deal premium from prices, and it will continue to do so."

"Because of all this, WTI oil prices are set to trade back down to the mid-$30, at least, putting the February low of $26.05 back in-play, into year-end."

ZH: Nov. 4, 2016
U.S. Rig Count Jumps To Nine Month High

Oil Set For Biggest Weekly Loss Since January

Or next week, whichever comes first: