Tuesday, October 11, 2016

The Volatility Noose. Is Tight.

The Brexit rally led to the lowest realized volatility in 20 years...


However, this chart shows that as the S&P has moved higher, second derivative implied volatility (VVIX) has become more sensitive. The red line is the inverse VVIX indicating that small moves in the S&P will lead to acceleration in the VIX...

In other words, despite being at all time highs, the margin of error has decreased...







This chart shows the same thing. Since 2014, the market has moved higher (recently) and yet the inverse volatility ETF (XIV) hasn't kept up...


Bulltards think that they have 200 points of S&P downside before this shit show gets real.

That's not the case...




I know.