Tuesday, September 6, 2016

The Low Volatility Mass Delusion

Unfortunately, low volatility has been misconstrued as low risk. And that's not always the case in life nor markets...




Realized volatility is the lowest in at least 20 years. Prior low was the May 2015 market high:

Bollinger Band width (6 weeks, 2 standard deviations):



On a related note, oil is tracing out the exact same fractal as last year and by coincidence is at the exact same level. One difference, this move lower is occurring twice as fast...



You don't have to be a fucking genius to figure out how this ends...


"Getting in was easy"