Thursday, August 18, 2016

The Best Fake Rally All The Money Can Buy

What is worse, fake wealth or no wealth? Central Banks have decided that fake wealth no matter how ephemeral, is better than reality, so they invented CasinoNomics...

One year of CasinoNomics later, from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed:




CasinoNomics is the conjoining of Monetary Policy, HFT, and mass delusion to bid up stocks to asinine levels while the economy implodes in the background. It's not as much fun as it sounds. Every time global risk sells off, Central Banks throw more gasoline on the dying fire, giving the illusion of an inflated bubble...

As we see from global yields (red), and the Central Bank combined balance sheet (blue), they went ALL IN with Brexit...


How do we know it's the end of CasinoNomics? Because the casino stocks aka. retail brokers let us know...

Interactive Brokers


Plus the fact that cash balances are all time low...


Bears are at 26%


Global risk has had a good counter-trend bounce:
Oil, junk bonds, Global Financials, Global stocks (ex-U.S.), Financials:


Speaking of junk bonds, right back to last August levels...




European stocks. Ready to go dumpster diving...




The oil rally with USO ETF volume lower pane, 2x average today. To the left is one year ago, after the Flash Crash: