I would suggest, that going into the Brexit vote, since U.S. stocks are the "safe haven" of choice, and that new highs are expected on the S&P 500, that any vote to stay in the EU will lead to a massive rally in Europe followed by a rollover in the U.S. Basically what happened yesterday. I think a "leave" vote is extremely unlikely.
This is the ratio of U.S. stocks / European stocks:
We've seen this movie before...
Then, within the S&P, we find that the "low volatility" stocks are also massively over-owned:
SPLV / S&P:
And there is very strong correlation between the VIX and the SPLV. Meaning that the wave 3 decline on the S&P was the top in SPLV that led to VIX acceleration...
This is the safe haven WITHIN the safe haven...
What could go wrong?
Don't forget oil:
Of course if this count is correct, then this shit show can end at any moment in any timezone...
I think a downside convergence as visualized below, is very likely to occur post-referendum...when everyone realizes at the same time, this has nothing to do with Brexit...
