Thursday, June 9, 2016

Truth and Consequences aka. RISK IS BINARY

Stoned gamblers have systematically ignored global risk...even as the conduit for transmitting global risk to the S&P - USDJPY - has continually diverged from U.S. stocks...

Overnight Risk Visualized:
Major declines in USDJPY are associated with progressively wider opening gaps in the S&P 500:

The red line is the 5 day moving average of S&P opening gaps. USDJPY is the black line...



Stocks versus Treasuries and USDJPY aka. "Global risk"


JPY Hourly



Truth and consequences
Only one of these will be right about global risk, and when I say "one", I mean Currency, yields, and deflation versus stocks




To be sure, Europe enjoys pounding the U.S. pre-market as well. Piling on when liquidity is thin...




The fate of Globalization rests with dumb beta and HFT...bet against Soros accordingly...