Friday, April 15, 2016

The Doha Moment: The Perfect Shit Storm

Eight weeks of global short-covering has led to this weekend. The best case scenario is that global oil producers reach a non-binding agreement to limit oil production at maximum output. What any reasonable Idiocracy would bet everything on...

 Picture perfect timing:

Stocks and oil: 93% correlated:

U.S. Oil ETF


In the meantime, all of this "good news" has been priced into oil and all other risk assets alike, with some notable divergences...

Oil with oil services stocks


Oil with all Energy stocks:
Oil with 4x overvalued Chevron. One of only two "safe" Energy stocks...



Oil with 2x historically overvalued Exxon. The other "safe haven" in Energy...I think we all see where I'm going with this...


On to Tech:
Having completed a second retracement, today Apple is back at the 200 day, demonstrating the Elliott Wave principle that the news breaks with the cycle...

ZH: April 15, 2016


USD/JPY breaking down again...


Staples: ready for the hardest landing...


Liquidity is nil, so as long as volatility doesn't mean revert, this will all be fine...



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