Tuesday, April 12, 2016

The Doha Moment: Betting It All On A Fake Oil Agreement.

The entire world onboarded risk in anticipation of this weekend's oil "Summit" to freeze production at maximum output. What could go wrong? Producers increased production in advance to ensure the all-important "agreement"...




The Financial Instability Hypothesis (Hyman Minsky)
"the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the likelihood that the economy is a deviation amplifying system"

Deviation amplification visualized (60 day Standard deviation):

I think we all see where I'm going with this...



The Minsky hypothesis posits that gamblers take more risk as the cycle progresses...



By contrast, the "Black Swan" hypothesis beloved on Wall Street for bailout reasons, posits that risk is random and evenly distributed...therefore risk is only recognizable in hindsight. Watching serial fucktards crowd into 3x overvalued recession stocks does not mean that risk is high...






And therefore, short-covering all global risk assets ahead of a totally fake oil summit, also does not imply that risks are high...because if anyone saw this coming, that would mean that everyone else is a total fucking idiot...