Friday, April 29, 2016

Don't Put Stock In The Day of Reckoning. Cash Only

All warnings are being ignored or otherwise ridiculed. The perfect set-up...

"Here are the 10 stocks you want to own on the day of reckoning..."

Warren Buffett's largest holdings:
IBM, Coke, American Express, Phillips 66, Procter & Gamble, Walmart, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo

Speaking of day of reckoning, last night China strengthened their currency the most in ten years, which just means that they are getting ready to weaken it again...They think we're all idiots, but they're only about 95% right. Even before I could write this, the currency was going down again...My hypothesis is that the Japanese Yen is putting massive pressure on China's capital outflows...

Below shows Yuan/Dollar (red) versus Dollar/Yen. Each time the Yen falls substantially, China's reserve outflow accelerates (not shown). HOWEVER, in March when the Yen fell the most, China's reserves fell very little. Which prompted this observer to ask whether or not the PBOC was now counting Yuan as Foreign Exchange aka. cooking the books...similar to how they cook their GDP numbers

All of which portends for a major devaluation. Base case scenario:

Do you see the massive increase in Yuan (red). If not, you may need a new microscope...