Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Weaker Than 2008 Amid EXTREME COMPLACENCY

This is a pre-packaged collapse, just add panic. The status quo hangs on oil and 3x overvalued breakfast cereal. Plan accordingly.

Aside from the strength in the S&P due to the flight to "safety", the rest of the market is far weaker than it was going into October 2008...all while the VIX is signaling multi-year extreme complacency...

When the "safe" stocks roll over, volatility will explode. Kind of like what happened the last two times...

The Hotel Californication Visualized:
Consumer staples with realized volatility
I'm sure that parabolic rising wedge is not a problem...






Weaker than 2008...
Small caps with 200 day moving average:



Nasdaq



World ex-U.S. peaked almost two years ago (July 2014) a full year ahead of the S&P:

w/correlation to S&P (lower pane)



Financials




The Special K Indicator...




The "slightly overvalued" crowded trade indicator...
P/E for consumer staples:




S&P with 200 dma:



USD/JPY




Options implied volatility is indicating EXTREME complacency

ZH: March 23, 2016
VIX is Signaling Multi-Year Extreme Complacency