Thursday, March 24, 2016

Volatility Regime Change aka. Mind the Gap 'n Crap

CNBC: Mar. 24, 2016
Professional Investor Bullishness Back At November Highs

Four main events on tap:
1) Closing the USDJPY divergence w/S&P 
2) Oil marked to reality, unsupported by mega-short-covering
3) Defensive stocks breaking the rising wedge 
4) Nasdaq/momentum third wave down

All will occur at/around the same time...

In the meantime, momentum determines the trend. The trend determines volatility. The trend is now down again...

The five day "eerily calm" period described by CNBS yesterday appears to be ending, albeit mitigated by the Easter holiday. 

When the trend is up, volatility subsides, when the trend is down, volatility increases as we saw this morning with the 10 point downside gap...

Opening downside gaps > 25 S&P points, one year view:

5 day realized volatility:

In the pantheon of large overnight gaps, closing this divergence would be the largest...I'm not sure what we're waiting for, maybe a long weekend...


Consumer staples

The third (last) Google/Big Cap Tech ground and pound is all set...