The Idiocracy has unanimously agreed, no one can predict the inevitable, because cause and effect are 100% uncorrelated. Plausible deniability is the opiate of the perma-stoned masses...
"You don't have to be a Weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing" - Bob Dylan
"You don't have to be a Weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing" - Bob Dylan
ZH: March 14, 2016
"if Trump wins Florida and Ohio then the market will get very nervous." [aka. Tomorrow, Tuesday]
Flip that Idiocratic bullshit: The more likely scenario - given that Wall Street has already been selling this market for a year straight - is that when stocks are down -50%, that's a Trump or Sanders vote.
The Back Wall of the Hurricane:
In other words the binary (political) fate we face now depends wholly upon whether or not the zombies get their wake up call ahead of the election. Of course, my own work says that is by far the most likely outcome; however, I've been early before, because these fucking zombies can take some pain. They got monkey hammered in August, bought that clusterfuck. Got shellacked again in January, bought that disaster, and now they're still pretending there's nothing wrong. Like the Black Knight in Monty Python with no arms: "It's just a flesh wound". Nevertheless, relentless sector and asset class obliteration preceding and paralleling these above events has brought the critical juncture into view, attended by mass complacency, low volume, low implied volatility, short-covering, non-stop political circus spectacle and of course the meetings of the Money Printers.
In other words the binary (political) fate we face now depends wholly upon whether or not the zombies get their wake up call ahead of the election. Of course, my own work says that is by far the most likely outcome; however, I've been early before, because these fucking zombies can take some pain. They got monkey hammered in August, bought that clusterfuck. Got shellacked again in January, bought that disaster, and now they're still pretending there's nothing wrong. Like the Black Knight in Monty Python with no arms: "It's just a flesh wound". Nevertheless, relentless sector and asset class obliteration preceding and paralleling these above events has brought the critical juncture into view, attended by mass complacency, low volume, low implied volatility, short-covering, non-stop political circus spectacle and of course the meetings of the Money Printers.
Nassim Taleb is adding his voice to the political theater warning that only unknowable Black Swan events determine the political future. Ka-Ching another book sale. Really? With everything that's already occurred to date and the amount of lying that goes on everyday to fake believe this shit show, and we don't have any inkling of the binary fate that awaits Fantasy Island?
By his own admission, Globalization is not "resilient" and therefore is prone to Black Swan collapse aka. idiots onboarding too much risk and then self-imploding.
“Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans" - Nassim Taleb
Continue...
"People are not voting for Trump or Sanders, people are just voting finally to destroy the establishment" - Nassim Taleb
Good job. Now, just put those two thoughts together, and there you go.
Deductive reasoning, is the process of reasoning from one or more statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion.
Logical deduction: "No PhD saw that coming"
Logical deduction: "No PhD saw that coming"
