Thursday, March 24, 2016

0% Intelligence: Trapped In An Idiot Feedback Loop

It's a fool's errand to ascribe intelligence where none exists. There's a limit to how many idiots a society can sustain, we're six standard deviations past that limit, mostly in Economics PhDs locked in their own idiot feedback loop...

Monetary policy doesn't fix the economy, it merely keeps it on life support while corporations "right size" the middle class i.e. their end market. In the meantime, stoned gamblers are locked in a momentum feedback loop of their own creation - buying the dips and selling the rips and then making up reasons after-the-fact to justify their apparent "success". Anyone who bought any asset or sector based upon some quaint notion of "fundamentals", blew up a long time ago.

The roller coaster ride ends with the very last sector aka. defensive stocks getting pumped and dumped along with all of the rest, followed by a big "splat" - a process in its latest stages...

The market is oscillating in an attenuating momentum feedback loop with resistance above it and short-covering below it...when momentum rolls over, the direction "changes". In between, the ever-fewer surviving gamblers tell themselves how smart they are...in other words, this is a 100% technically driven market, with 0% intelligence behind it...

Six week momentum


The trend is now "down"
Daily momentum



0% Intelligence visualized
Corporations are right-sizing themselves...

Throughout all of this chicanery, the Earnings Yield keeps going down, meaning the value of the companies is falling...and to think, "the event" hasn't even taken place yet, so 2008 gives us a handy roadmap for how this all ends...


Based upon option skew (premium for out-of-money options protection), it appears shorts have capitulated, which is what creates the "splat" on the next leg down...



The index put/call ratio confirms that hedges have been abandoned..."no one" buys options ahead of a long weekend (due to accelerated time decay, bad for the P&L):



"Dude, where's the 'Conomy?"
Black Swan diving into pavement aka. the hardest landing...