Saturday, February 20, 2016

"Markets Are Always Right. Except Now..."

Because we don't like what they're saying...

According to Barron's, 60% of the S&P 500 is already in a bear market (-20%). 37% is down more than 30%. Yet according to the same magazine (below), this will be the best year for GDP growth "in years"...

"While there is little sign of a recession, plenty of technical indicators suggest that the stock market is heading sharply lower."

This just in:
Feb. 19th, 2016
Factset earnings outlook for current quarter by industry:

This is our buddy Gene Epstein, again...pride of Generation Madoff. I didn't read the article, and it's not soft enough for ass wipe:

Treasury spreads
10 year versus 1 year, same scale (right):

Forward deflation expectations based upon TIPs (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities):

Credit spreads:
High yield / Treasury

Russell /Dow ratio:



Utilities (S&P / Utility ratio):

Consumer Staples (Kimberly Clark) / S&P ratio: