Thursday, February 4, 2016

"Sumamabitch!!!" Catch A Falling Buzz Saw

This is what the new all time high in U.S. oil inventories looks like...

The circles are the inventory levels the last times oil bottomed:

The Big Long Visualized:

Energy earnings are far worse than anyone expected...overall earnings are worse than expected. And for the first time since 2009, earnings are not meeting "downward revisions" coming into the quarter. The bar was not set low enough. 

MW: Feb. 4, 2016

"the problem is that stocks, despite the recent rout, haven’t quite adjusted to the drop in earnings: “So how have share prices adjusted to the earnings drop? Mostly not at all. In fact, price/earnings multiples increased slightly as earnings contracted,” 

Exxon aka. the Energy sector:

Exxon as a ratio of the entire Energy sector:

The Big Long
They're all going to panic at the exact same time

"The recent surge in hedge funds’ long positions suggests that hedge funds covered their short positions and are bargain hunting. "

Oil volatility with oil inventories