Friday, February 5, 2016

The Central Bank "God" Complex. Is Ending. Badly.

China's Central Bank spent most of last year fiddle fucking around with its stock market trying to keep it from collapsing. They were buying some rocks for a trillion dollars assuming all rocks would automatically gain in value, which is what all Central Banks have been doing for seven years...printing money to buy stocks, while the economy collapsed:

Anyone who still believes in the omnipotence of Central Bankers at this late juncture, with over forty global stock markets now in bear market territory, deserves their fate. The value of stocks is reassessed every day relative to the health of the economy, and profits derived from sustainable revenue aka. "wages" - not what some idiot paid for them yesterday.

On Sunday night (Monday Asia time), China will release its widely anticipated Foreign Exchange Reserves position for the end of January. Estimates for the magnitude of drawdown are all over the place, between the low of -37 billion predicted by BofA to the "high" of -195 billion predicted by Goldman

In between these extremes, via Bloomberg, a poll of economists estimates -118, so we know it won't be that amount. Barclays estimates -140 and SocGen -120. The over/under is -108 which was the December figure.

However, as we see below, what the Chinese are attempting is known as the impossible, because at the same time they are defending their currency they are also cutting interest rates. Only a Commie Capitalist would attempt something this asinine - basically flooring the brake and the accelerator at the same time:

CNY (red) with interest rates (black, left scale):

The Yen is waiting: