Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Primed For Collapse

"Good news" the S&P % of stocks above 200 day moving average just hit 25%

An optimist is someone who is looking for a cow in a room full of bullshit

According to this article, the chart above is bullish, because "When the % of stocks above their 200 dma reaches 25%, that marks a bottom"

Like all things in the Idiocracy, the truth is the exact opposite of what they desperately need to believe. As we see below, in 2008, the %200dma bounced off 25% several times, but the last time it hit 25%, the market fell by 45%...

2008 daily chart. Dotted horizontal line is at the 25% level:

This happens of course, because the largest stocks are always the last to fall, and when they fall the entire market falls. Fast...

Nasdaq 100 (black) with Nasdaq % of stocks above 200 dma. Only 19% of Nasdaq stocks are above their 200 dma:

Equal weight / cap weight S&P: mega-divergence

Only mega-caps need apply
Russell 1000 large cap equal weight / cap weight

World ex-U.S.

The count stands. The point of acceleration is at hand...