Tuesday, January 19, 2016


"Don't risk dollars to make nickels"

Global De-Risking is in full force. Bear market rallies are steep and short...generally not to be "played" for nickels and dimes. Wall Street was net short in 2008. Now, not so much...

This era's Lehman Moment - global currency devaluation - already occurred. But the Idiocracy is too dumb to figure it out. They're still trying to play the micro rallies within the bear market. Why? Because Wall Street's chimps have been well-trained by Central Banksters for seven years, to cover their shorts on the tiniest dip. They're picking up nickels in front of a steamroller, the only way this would all end...

People tend to remember Lehman as an "event", when in fact the "Lehman" stock crash lasted from August 28th, 2008 to March 8, 2009. Over six months. The stock market had been declining for an entire YEAR prior to the crash phase. Wave 3 at all degrees of trend i.e. the acceleration phase (-22%), lasted from Sept. 30th to Oct. 10th. There were many massive short-covering rallies over the six month duration aka. "False Dawns"...

The Idiocracy just slept through an Emerging Markets currency collapse, this era's Lehman Moment:

By the time they wake up, it will be far too late...
We've never seen ANYTHING this asinine before:
ValueLine Arithmetic Average

Or this: % of NYSE stocks above 200 dma:

The damage is done
Weekly new lows, Nasdaq:

MS World ex-U.S.: Deja Vu

NO, this is not 2011:
Canadian dollar, Commodity composite, EM currencies, EM debt...

Bearish sentiment: is not that bearish, contrary to what JP Morgan desperately needs to believe...currently only 45% bears, compared to 70% at the bottom in 2009:

Speaking of JP Morgan, is there something we need to know?
Stock is down -22% from its highs...

Rule #1: Don't try to surf a Tsunami