Saturday, December 5, 2015

All Aboard the Fake Recovery

Barring meltdown, which is always my base case scenario, the Fed will raise interest rates by .25% for the first time in a decade, on December 16th...

Prepare for lift-off...

The two year Treasury has priced in almost four rate hikes as of yesterday close (currently at .987%):

Two year (black) with deflation (red):

The output gap is at recession-wide levels:

Deflation imputed from Inflation protected treasuries:

Stocks with interest rates (S&P average stock):

% of S&P stocks above 200 dma:

Global Dow is at 2.5 year lows:

Retail stocks equal weight / market cap weight:

Junk bonds are at post-Lehman lows

Crude oil is below $40:
Emerging Market stocks with Energy stocks:

Distribution is at Lehman levels
NYSE up volume / total volume:

Minimal hedging
CBOE index put/call:

Commodities are somewhere back in the 1960s...
with global growth rate: