The globalized economy is a colossal Ponzi Scheme in which the vast majority survive on the bread crumbs falling off the table. The possibility of 7 billion people achieving a consumption-oriented lifestyle is zero, so the World Bank conveniently set the poverty line at $1.25/day to legalize global slavery. As long as someone else's children are doing the suffering, it's "all good". Post-2008, this illusion was extended merely by plundering all future generations.
Saturday, December 5, 2015
All Aboard the Fake Recovery
Barring meltdown, which is always my base case scenario, the Fed will raise interest rates by .25% for the first time in a decade, on December 16th...
Prepare for lift-off...
The two year Treasury has priced in almost four rate hikes as of yesterday close (currently at .987%):
Two year (black) with deflation (red):
The output gap is at recession-wide levels:
Deflation imputed from Inflation protected treasuries:
Stocks with interest rates (S&P average stock):
% of S&P stocks above 200 dma:
Global Dow is at 2.5 year lows:
Retail stocks equal weight / market cap weight:
Junk bonds are at post-Lehman lows
Crude oil is below $40: Emerging Market stocks with Energy stocks:
Distribution is at Lehman levels NYSE up volume / total volume:
Minimal hedging CBOE index put/call:
Commodities are somewhere back in the 1960s... with global growth rate: