Thursday, October 1, 2015

Where The Bodies Are Buried: Nowhere To Hide

July-September was the worst quarter since 2011. All global risk markets were down on the quarter.

The Shanghai Composite peaked on June 12th and lost -41%. European stocks peaked in early April. The Dow and S&P peaked mid-May. The Nasdaq peaked mid-July.

Shanghai Composite with U.S. Dow:



The only U.S. sector that gained was beer stocks (brewers), which gained 30% in the past month, due to takeover activity. As it turns out brewers were the only sector to peak after Lehman in 2008:



These are not quarterly returns, they are returns from cycle peak (post-2008) to current level:

S&P 500:            -9.86%
Nasdaq 100:        -10.53%
Russell 2000:      -14.84%
Japan Nikkei:      -16.51%
Shanghai Comp:     -40.78%
German Dax:        -22.00%
Hong Kong:         -26.78%
UK FTSE:           -13.60%
Canadian Dow:      -15.65%
Aussie All Ord     -15.00%
Emerging Markets   -27.00%

Key U.S. Sectors:
Financials:        -11.24%
Transports:        -22.00%
Semiconductors:    -16.67%
IPO:               -20.00%
Materials:         -21.57%
Biotech:           -23.00%
Healthcare:        -14.29%
Homebuilders:      -12.82%
Energy:            -40.00%
Shipping:          -49.88%
Construction:      -51.65%
Pharma:            -14.86%
Machinery:         -23.30%
Resources:         -75.35%
Aerospace/Defense: -10.81%
Retail:             -7.59%
Utilities:         -11.56%
Consumer Staples:   -6.00%