Tuesday, October 27, 2015

The Hardest Landing: Too Big To Bail

After 7 years of corporate Shock Doctrine, we need not assume that this collapse will be a repeat of 2008. Because most people will have nothing left to lose, and will be playing their last hand. Sans bailout, this shit show will Black Swan dive into concrete and explode into a million pieces. Don't worry about Wall Street. There won't be one...

Most Americans have negative net worth. Their combined liabilities - assets are negative. Largely due to high uncollateralized debts e.g. credit cards or car loans with negative equity or underwater mortgages and of course various "off-balance sheet liabilities" e.g. fixed costs such as utility bills etc.

So anyone who has accumulated a few months or years of "buffer" in any way shape or form is better off than the vast majority. And therefore keen to find relative "safety" during the riot phase.

Now consider this article from the Federal Reserve:

To paraphrase, and embellish:
The FDIC is a joke entity having 1% reserves against the deposit base. Yes, you read that right. So instead of a bail-out, they will implement a bail-in, similar to what happened to Cyprus. Meaning if Bank of America fails, then depositor money will be used to recapitalize the bank and make it solvent. An event that could cost depositors an untold amount.

Other countries are all adopting similar laws:
"Rather than reining in the massive and risky derivatives casino, the new rules prioritize the payment of banks’ derivatives obligations to each other, ahead of everyone else. That includes not only depositors, public and private, but the pension funds that are the target market for the latest bail-in play, called “bail-inable” bonds.

“Bail in” has been sold as avoiding future government bailouts and eliminating too big to fail (TBTF). But it actually institutionalizes TBTF, since the big banks are kept in business by expropriating the funds of their creditors.

It is a neat solution for bankers and politicians, who don’t want to have to deal with another messy banking crisis and are happy to see it disposed of by statute. But a bail-in could have worse consequences than a bailout for the public. If your taxes go up, you will probably still be able to pay the bills. If your bank account or pension gets wiped out, you could wind up in the street or sharing food with your pets."

Physical cash
Treasury bills/bonds
Money Market funds
Toilet paper

Most survivalists would put the latter three well ahead of the first three, I get it. But from a deflationist stand-point, this is the order. 

This is not advice, it's information to ensure we're not "sharing food with our pets".