Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Damn Lies And Chinese Statistics




[Once again, the inverted demand curve strikes again - demand falling faster than prices...]
"Demand is collapsing along with prices, banks are tightening lending and losses are stacking up, the deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association said on Wednesday."

“Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening,” said Zhu at a quarterly briefing in Beijing by the main producers’ group. “Although China has cut interest rates many times recently, steel mills said their funding costs have actually gone up.”

OECD: China's Composite Leading Indicator:



FT.com: Sept. 16, 2015
Doubts Rise Over China's Official GDP Growth Rate
"The view that China is growing far slower than official figures show is increasingly going mainstream, with big global investors among those now basing decisions on a rate of about 5 per cent."

Chinese stocks with GDP Growth rate





The Chinese Yuan has appreciated 60% versus the Japanese Yen in the past four years i.e. extreme pressure to devalue...



China interest rate: Behind the curve...
Interest rate reduction has merely accelerated capital outflow 





Aussie / Yen (red) with S&P: