Sunday, August 16, 2015

The Ship of Fools Is Sinking

Ponzi schemes collapse from the bottom to the top, with the entitled fools standing on the upper decks the last to know.

"All forward decks are now open for swimming"




The Idiocracy doesn't believe in reality. It doesn't apply to them. And accountability? What's that? If you fuck up the global financial system, here's more money, gamble wisely.

Who needs accountability, when they've discovered the secret to effortless wealth - printing money. It's just amazing that no one thought of it sooner. 

In other words, history's largest boatload of self-absorbed tools are re-arranging the upper deck chairs on the S.S. Denial while lying to themselves constantly...

Aug. 15, 2015 Barrons
Emerging Markets Hit Bear Market Territory

"Things went from bad to worse in the developing world last week, as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipped into bear-market territory."

"broader macroeconomic forces—the ones that used to be most associated with the fates of emerging markets—are proving to be a heavy drag. Shriveling global growth means lower prices for commodities such as iron ore and oil. Rising interest rates in the U.S. could also limit emerging banks’ ability to stimulate growth with rate cuts."

EM Local Currency Bond Fund:




In other words, the Ponzi process sponsored an ephemeral period of imbalanced trade, strong EM currencies, and carry trades - temporarily supporting capital flow into EM economies. 

Now, all of that is going in reverse. Trade is slowing, currencies are weakening and capital is flowing OUT of Emerging Markets...

Barrons:
"So what should investors do? For starters, exit Asia. The yuan devaluation will be a drag on the countries with the deepest China-trade relationships, especially South Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan. And China, intent on making its exports cheaper, is probably not done tinkering with its currency."

July 17, 2015: BBG:
Emerging Markets Had Biggest Outflows Since 2009
“Emerging-market assets suffered a sharp sell-off over the past two months, raising questions once again about credit creation and capital flows,”

Unfortunately, Ponzi schemes don't go in reverse. Imbalanced trade relationships that finance speculation based upon short-term financial flows, are a first order delusion. That was a lesson that should have been learned in 2008. But, the Idiocracy never learns:

2013 UN Global Trade Report: 
http://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=636
"Five years after the onset of the global financial crisis the world economy remains in a state of disarray...Prior to the Great Recession, buoyant consumer demand in the developed countries seemed to justify the adoption of an export-oriented growth model by many developing and transition economies. But that expansion was built on unsustainable global demand and financing patterns. Thus, reverting to pre-crisis growth strategies cannot be an option.

In an Idiocracy, everything is an option, over and over again.