Saturday, June 27, 2015

From Manic to Panic

"It was a bad time for Greece and China to both be melting down at the exact same time. But no one saw it coming, despite 5 years of non-stop coverage..."

Got cash and food?
Below is what happens when stoned zombies ignore risk and wait until the last minute. The ones who are least prepared make the best rioters. 

Greek bank run. Right now:
Eurozone Refuses Greek Bailout Extension. Default Looms

Under globalization, market correlation now approaches 100%. Therefore a bank run in one corner of the world could easily spread globally via counter-party risk and the 'subprime' effect. "But let's remember that the Global Financial Crisis was a 'one-time' event and we've borrowed our way out of it." 

More importantly, global markets have never been weaker. If this labelling is correct, the Global Dow is poised for a Third Wave down at multiple degrees of trend...

Global Dow with Global GDP growth (red line), now at a twelve year low (ex. 2009)...

The ingredients of a global panic are all in place...

Due to Central Planning for slumdog billunaires, there has been no "RISK OFF" event for three and a half years. This would be the first 'test' of Skynet since 2011...

S&P with 50 week moving average:

But if you really want to know what kind of ludicrous charade this past six years has been, look no further than the France CAC over a 20 year timeframe: 

How much cash? and food?

At least a month's worth of each, I realize that survivalists have many multiples of that, but it's far more important to realize that most rioters-in-waiting have less than a week of each. Nevertheless I assume that a month of food and cash will survive the worst part of the anarchy phase. Better to have something, than nothing.

My guess is that toilet paper, boxed Mac & Cheese, and ammunition will become currencies in their own right.

The worst assumption is to adopt the standard position, as the majority do right now, that we are somehow 'different' than Greece, because we print money - "our secret to effortless wealth"