Wednesday, May 6, 2015

The Fat Lady Is Singing: So Are the Grasshoppers

This week was a seminal moment in the long-awaited manic blow-off. Everything else is already primed to go.

Unlike 2007/2008, in this cycle the first leg down went unnoticed. Over the past year, Global GDP growth slowed, global macro collapsed (below) and carry trades took their first leg down. Risk assets diverged the entire time. All while ubiquitous posers blew smoke up our asses non-stop.

The global synchronized meltdown awaits. 

A dead-cat bounce in global macro:
Canadian dollar, Russian stocks, U.S. deflation, All Commodities, EM Currencies:

China GDP (red) with Stocks (black)
No recessions for 35+ Years:

All Commodities:

Carry Trades

U.S. Deflation expectations
TIP:TENZ ratio

Global Stocks

All fueled by Central Bank spoofed consumer sentiment
Fake optimism versus non-existent economy (short-term interest rates):

Non-existent economy visualized:
U.S. GDP growth adjusted for debt accumulation
All fake:

Record Divergence
The long-term Treasury sell-off is an indication that investors are rotating to "cash" aka. short-term treasuries / money markets; nevertheless, this gap remains record wide and rising interest rates beckons stocks lower:

A bad time to be caught pretending.