Wednesday, April 1, 2015

The Lehman Crash Came On the Right Shoulder

Draining the Lake: Lowest liquidity in three years
A 12 year history of Price / Volume (12 week moving average):
L,H,R (left shoulder, head, right shoulder):


ZH: March 31, 2015
Overnight Flash Crash: A glimpse into the future
Overnight, we got a taste of things to come, as S&P futures fell 25 points in a matter of minutes as the Japanese Yen strengthened against the dollar. In the scheme of things, it was a minor blip that hammered the carry trades causing a knee-jerk "RISK OFF" across all assets. After-the-fact, Skynet did what it's been doing for three years straight: take out liquidity, lower volume and then systematically walk the market higher. By the time Europe opened, the Draghi-bid had retraced the entire loss. 

The current state of Yen: Dollar (red) versus S&P 500 (black):


A five lane highway in, a goat trail out. 
Still, it was merely a warning for what is to come i.e. a low liquidity crash off hours, because today's prices are wholly disconnected from economic reality - they are the sole fabrication of Central Banks and HFT Bots working in a low liquidity environment rife for market manipulation.