Monday, March 30, 2015

The human species has only one enemy. Itself.

This is the era of voluntary self-extinction: mental, physical, economic.

Pre-gaming.

March, 28, 2015 ZH: Kyle Bass
"Global stock markets have a five lane highway getting in and a goat trail coming out"

"Strategies with negative skew have been described as “picking up nickels in front of steamrollers”. An investor may make a series of small gains, only to be wiped out by a sudden, large loss"
"Financial markets tend to have “fat tails”—more extreme outcomes, in the form of bubbles and crashes, than the normal distribution [bell curve] would suggest"

"Markets tend to rise more slowly than they fall. They may take months to advance by 15-20% but can drop that far in a week or even a day. In statistical jargon, this is known as “negative skew”."

The statistical skew of the S&P 500 is deeply negative indicating a disproportionate chance of loss versus gain:


Zen