Saturday, October 11, 2014

Rich Man's Panic

Groupthink
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints, by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences. Loyalty to the group requires individuals to avoid raising controversial issues or alternative solutions, and there is loss of individual creativity, uniqueness and independent thinking. 

The dysfunctional group dynamics of the "ingroup" produces an "illusion of invulnerability".

Correlation is Annihilation
Hedge fund correlation:



Printing Money to Buy Stocks
aka. A Jedi Mind Trick for a Stoned Idiocracy
aka. The dumbest fucking idea in human history

S&P 500 with VIX options fear gauge (black line) and Fed balance sheet (blue line)



Who wants to be a billunaire?
Microsoft with Fed balance sheet. 94% correlation


ZH: Distribution of U.S. Income:
(NOTE: Slaves are included. Then and Now)



Stocks versus Jobs



Net worth of typical American family


Number of people prosecuted and convicted after 2008





Highest in recorded history



% of Investors positioned for an "adverse event": 14%


Jobless "consumer" Non-confidence:




HALO Crash?
Not yet, but moving in the right direction
All U.S. stocks (weekly):




Groupthink on an historic scale
Wall Street's turn to ride under the bus