Monday, September 15, 2014

Peak Lies and Delusion: The Deadliest Phase

We're coming to an end of the mega-lies and bullshit. Don't drink the fucking Kool-Aid


As I've pointed out, we are well into the manic phase of this latest and greatest bubble. You know you are in the manic phase when after a long grueling grind out of the abyss, the economic clouds magically part, the skies clear, and all of the accumulated and ignored concerns just seem to disappear. This is by far the deadliest phase of the entire bubble, because this is the point at which the last skeptics capitulate and go ALL IN...

YOU KNOW YOU'RE IN THE MANIC PHASE OF THE BUBBLE WHEN...

The top performing stock market is from the one country that defaulted on its sovereign debt this year:


130 year-old railway stocks go parabolic as yield-hungry investors chase dividends:

P/E: 45



Stock buybacks hit the highest level ever, as the real economy and revenue growth are missing in action:



The largest IPO in history starts trading next Friday. A cash-out amount ($24b) that equates to 60% of the entire year-to-date cash-out proceeds ($40b) from 190 IPOs:













"People are feeling more comfortable in their jobs, and more comfortable with the economy," said Matt Schulz, senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com, who pointed to auto loans and student lending as driving the growth."



Stock market margin debt hits an all time high:



"Consumer" ConnedFidence hits a 7 year high, even though per capita full time jobs, median incomes and median wealth are at multi-decade lows:


Stock market bearish sentiment hits a 27 year low circa 1987 prior to the crash:


Spanish Ponzi debt yields collapse to the lowest level in history, despite a doubling in debt in five years:


The Fed debates the best timing to raise interest rates and obliterate the latest generation of fools who took advantage of cheap credit. 



The Silence of the Bears
Early skeptics of money printing to buy stocks and borrowing to fix a debt crisis, somehow conclude that five years of money printing and borrowing is better than just one year of alchemy. They magically put those concerns aside and adopt the "consensus view" towards the pseudo-economy:



A flailing Mannekin launches an all new war to "fix" the havoc created by the last wars. All of the dumbfucks on TV debate the likelihood that more aerial bombardment will finally convince the Middle East to adopt the collapsing "American Way". 



Our neighbours finally trade up to the new McMansion they've been putting off since 2008

Don't Drink the Fucking Kool-Aid
As with any bubble, it's the people around us who make it truly dangerous