I now reveal the full illusional power of Russian programming combined with shoving one's head up their own ass (don't try this at home...)
Dow with red line showing where the average stock is relative to its 52 week range. In a nutshell, the Dow is 1% off of its all time high, whereas the average stock is 22% lower than its 52 week high. (Clearly, I understated the extent of the gap in my previous post - likely because I was working off of recent highs, not 52 week highs).
Look at correlation between the market and average price (lower pane):
Look at correlation between the market and average price (lower pane):
The S&P Illusion
Correlation (lower pane) between the average stock and the index is verging on negative
Correlation (lower pane) between the average stock and the index is verging on negative
The Nasdaq 100 Mega-Illusion
Negative correlation between price movement in the average stock and the index - never saw that in the past five years, much less during a rally when correlation generally increases...
Negative correlation between price movement in the average stock and the index - never saw that in the past five years, much less during a rally when correlation generally increases...
The Junk-Laden Nasdaq Composite Illusion
Here we see the Nasdaq, newly burdened with all manner of IPO junk. As we see (black line), it made a picture perfect bounce off of its 200 DMA (blue line); however the red line shows the actual % of stocks above their own individual 200 DMA i.e. 43%. Quite an illusion.
HALO crash revisited - how could it NOT happen?:
Suffice to say, it's not that hard to predict a collapse, with the Dow and S&P magically clinging to their all time highs while most of the stocks in those indices already well into decline, and the entire clusterfuck orchestrated by Skynet on minimal volume. Friday's trading volume was 30% lower on an hourly basis than it was this past Christmas Eve which was a half day of trading.
Brown Swans Flocking
The HALO Crash just got upgraded from a rare and improbable event to the most logical outcome, based on the current set of facts presented above. This introduces the concept of a "Brown Swan Event":
First off, Black Swan events of course are "rare and 'unpredictable' cataclysmic events that can only be rationalized in hindsight as having been predictable". These events are named after black swans which are extremely rare in nature, and the term was introduced by the all-knowing Nassim Taleb in "Fooled by Randomness". One day I'm going to write a book called "Fooled by Dumbfucks: The Idiots Guide to Investing". It will contain no math or statistics and yet it will make the startling assertion that the impossible is not possible.
Where was I...
Whereas a Brown Swan event (yes, of course my term): is basically an obvious and predictable event that everyone delusionally pretends can't happen to them in their lifetime. These events got their name from "that guy" who has his head in the sand while a white swan flies up his ass.
(Im)Plausible Deniability is the Opiate of the Stoned Masses
Brown Swans Flocking
The HALO Crash just got upgraded from a rare and improbable event to the most logical outcome, based on the current set of facts presented above. This introduces the concept of a "Brown Swan Event":
First off, Black Swan events of course are "rare and 'unpredictable' cataclysmic events that can only be rationalized in hindsight as having been predictable". These events are named after black swans which are extremely rare in nature, and the term was introduced by the all-knowing Nassim Taleb in "Fooled by Randomness". One day I'm going to write a book called "Fooled by Dumbfucks: The Idiots Guide to Investing". It will contain no math or statistics and yet it will make the startling assertion that the impossible is not possible.
Where was I...
Whereas a Brown Swan event (yes, of course my term): is basically an obvious and predictable event that everyone delusionally pretends can't happen to them in their lifetime. These events got their name from "that guy" who has his head in the sand while a white swan flies up his ass.
(Im)Plausible Deniability is the Opiate of the Stoned Masses
