Monday, January 14, 2013

Minsky, History, Reality v.s. Bernanke, Wall Street, Politicians

I noticed my stats had fallen off, so I thought there must be an NFL playoff game going on that I wasn't aware of. But then I realized it was just another Obama press conference where he was going out of his way to incite gun owners into an apoplectic fit of rage, all so he could appease his "base", none of whom own any guns. Nothing like hosing down a wild fire with gasoline...

Then I took a gander at another "alternative" blog, where they are talking about "Collapse Fatigue".

Collapse Fatigue? What the fuck is that? Is that where we get tired of thinking about reality so we take up another hobby, like lawn bowling...?

Speaking of Golden Globes...
And why is it that everyone gets collapse fatigue at a point where society at large is more worried about what dress J.Lo was wearing last night than how all of the myriad issues at hand are going to get solved. I'm all for J.Lo's golden globes, however, I am starting to believe that the Elliot Wave types and their social mood theory is at least partially correct, because I am amazed at the level of complacency that has arisen merely because we crossed over into 2013 and the stock market is near its 52 week high - albeit a level it first crossed fourteen years ago.

Party Like Its 1999 All Over Again
Speaking of fourteen years ago, this latest rally is the ultimate example of collapse fatigue. The whole world was uptight for all of 2012 due to the Mayan prediction and every other end of world scenario. Compounding that angst into the end of the year, we had the fiscal cliff political clusterfuck. So no surprise, when Jan. 1 rolled around and taxes were (roughly) the same, and the Mayans were proved wrong (go figure) - the whole world partied like it was 1999 all over again.  We remember how that turned out.  So it comes down to a matter of trust. Who do we trust - the Mayans?; Wall Street pump and dumpers?  Bernanke and the printing press? Government con artists and their five week coffee breaks? Apparently people feared the Mayans more than they fear Wall Street. After all, no one would give a Mayan their retirement money...

Meanwhile, my entire purpose in writing this blog wasn't to act like chicken little and say something bad "could" happen so hide under the bed in the fetal position. My intent was that people could take proactive action to reduce the collateral damage to their own personal economic situations - reduce debt, raise cash, hedge the market, buy guns and ammo etc. Ironically, us "chicken littles" have been considered wrong for most of the past several years - even despite the Flash Crash, the 2011 debt ceiling meltdown, the European debt crisis (which is not the least bit resolved), Occupy Wall Street, the Arab Spring and every other blatant sign that this shit show is not the least bit stable. Either way, it's very telling that many so-called dedicated "doomsters" are joining the over-crowded  "collapse fatigue" movement. Clearly either reality has been permanently suspended or we are witnessing in real time, the most widespread example of Groupthink in world history, without comparison.

Reality is Not a TV Series
Apparently the Idiocracy has come to think that reality is just another TV series they can tune in to whenever they get bored. Unfortunately, this is not a fucking parlour game. We know too much at this juncture to merely adopt the official Idiocratic stance - bent over, head straight up own ass. History will not be kind to a society that repeats the exact same mistakes over and over again, each time with greater leverage, until it finally blows itself up, all while watching "I Didn't Know I Was Pregnant".

And unfortunately, it's the way of the world that "surprises" don't come when everyone is expecting them.  The supernova is always brightest right before it collapses...