Sunday, December 30, 2012

Deal or No Deal ?

The mass media is on pins and needles wondering if there will be a deal or not on the dreaded "fiscal cliff", before January 1st.

From a markets perspective, it no longer matters...


As Art Cashin explains, if we get some sort of deal in the next day or so, you can guarantee given how far apart the two sides are, that at best it will be some skimpy stop gap deal that merely kicks the can down the road until the next episode of this ongoing fiasco.

Back in October 2008, when the Bush Government tried to cram the "TARP" bailout through Congress, the first House vote failed and the markets tanked.  After a couple of days, the markets stabilized leading up to the second vote a week later which successfully passed the infamous Wall Street bailout.  Markets celebrated by falling off a cliff...

Last year in 2011, same thing. During July, Congress battled over the debt ceiling.  Markets were strong into late July.  Once the deal was struck, the markets tanked.

Fast forward to this year and markets fell immediately after the election and then rallied until December 18th. As ZeroHedge points out, market indicators are flashing extreme bullish positioning at this juncture, prior to any bill being passed. So essentially politicians by continuing to play their buffoonish games, are no different than a drunk poker player who goes all in with a junk hand and puts on a bluff to fool himself. Given that these political jackasses have no clue about how markets work, they are in fact oblivious as to how many chips are currently on the table...

Therefore, half ass deal or no deal, the outcome is likely to be the same...