Not pretty - Lurching to a top with overlapping waves.
I guess $7 trillion+ of combined monetary/fiscal stimulus doesn't buy what it used to...
The amount of b.s. flying around these days due to the election, is out-of-control. Apparently the only thing still made in the U.S.A. is bullshit.
The most egregious lies being told, of course, surround the economy - each side telling their version of the untruth while reality is assiduously avoided. The fact remains that both political parties want to avoid the truth regarding this pseudo-recovery because both sides have special interest groups and political interests face down in the public trough.
Happy Belated Labor Day
Just today, another monthly jobs report that was far below expectations - the latest reminder that all of the money being wasted on Extend and Pretend, is completely bypassing the middle class.
Let's Do Some Reality-Based Accounting
Going back to 2007, prior to the collapse, GDP was $14 trillion and the Federal Deficit was $400 billion.
Then came the collapse, which wiped out 9 million jobs and took the stock market down 57% from the top.
So the question on the table is what was the ROI from the trillions spent on this "recovery"?
GDP - National Income Fully Recovered and Then Some
GDP in 2011 was $15 trillion, roughly $1 trillion more than in 2007
Stock Market - almost fully recovered
As of this writing, the stock market has recovered ~87% of its losses from the crash (chart above). Granted when you compare this 2009 rally to the 2003-2007 rally there is no comparison. That one was a smooth uptrend with minor pullbacks on steadily rising volume. This one has been a lurching clusterfuck as the Wall Street junky vomits on itself every few months while waiting for the next round of monetary dopium. Notice volume in the lower pane - collapsing like a cheap tent as real buyers exit and leave the HFTs to cannibilize themselves...
Only 4 million jobs recovered - still missing 5 million
The (ongoing) Fiscal Cost (not counting monetary dopium)
The recurring deficit, increased by $900 billion (from $400 billion to $1.3 trillion)
The total debt increased $5 trillion during the period
Inquiring Minds Want to Know - How Many Jobs Does $900 Billion Buy?
So instead of the net new 4 million jobs that have been created, how many jobs should have been created given the expansion in the deficit? At $50k apiece, $900 billion equates to 18 million jobs if paid for directly. I realize that many consider it socialism to buy jobs outright, so apparently the best alternative is to just throw the money down the shit hole instead.
Therefore, the ROI in terms of jobs for this "recovery" is $.22 on the dollar (i.e. $.78 loss). And we all know where the rest of the money went...
One Man's Loss is Another Man's Gain
As usual, the stock market gained on today's bad jobs news, because thanks to all of the "lazy laid off people", Wall Street can now expect some more dopium from the Bennie Bernank next Thursday. The Bernank and his cohort at the global central banks don't know that financial leverage is an extremely dangerous short-term proxy for real economic growth. That lesson lies in front of them.
Is this a great fucking economy or what ?
