"One disadvantage of asset purchases relative to conventional monetary policy is that we have much less experience in judging the economic effects of this policy instrument, which makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public."- Ben Bernanke [October 2010]
I stopped questioning whether my overall thesis was right (or wrong) some time ago - after the events of 2008. Watching this comfort-seeking society desperately running away from reality, each 'solution' of shorter and shorter duration, has convinced me. Back in the day, while in the airborne infantry, our parachute instructors snickeringly told us - never climb the risers. The risers are the canvas lines that attach your harness to the parachute. I thought they were joking. Then on my second jump, at 200 feet off the deck I saw a buddy of mine - big guy, about 50 meters away, his legs flailing like crazy and his arms desperately clawing up the risers. He was vainly trying to avoid the ground rushing towards him, and of course he landed like a sack of shit - definitely not in the tuck and roll position. With respect to the economy and all other aspects of reality, this pampered society is now climbing the risers. Therefore, it's merely a question of timing, and as you can tell, I am not overly concerned about whether or not I am accurate down to the specific month, week and day i.e. this blog doesn't cater to options traders. That said, from my perspective, each passing day that the point of recognition does not occur, just means that we are one day closer to the event. Time is not a friend to fantasy and delusion.